Alex Hardy

Microsoft’s $44.6bn bid to buy Yahoo! is a hot topic at the moment to say the least. Since Microsoft offer a huge premium over Yahoo’s market value to its shareholders, the only real question seems to be whether the US government will permit the takeover. As a loyal user of Flickr (I paid my renewal fee last week), it makes me wonder what will become of it.

I believe they will sell Flickr. My reasons for this break down two ways: Positive reasons to “sell” it, and negative reasons to “get rid” of it. Here they are…

1. Sell: Flickr is not a “bubble” company. Unlike Facebook et al, Flickr provides a service that people will not tire of (photo sharing) and are prepared to pay for.
2. Sell: Flickr is profitable and would surely sell for a good price.
3. Get rid: Because it is a paid service, there is no advertising opportunity.
4. Sell: Flickr has an enthusiastic user base.
5. Get rid: The same user base were unhappy when Yahoo bought Flickr.
6. Get rid: Flickr is built on PHP and it isn’t Microsoft’s M.O. to support products based on a rival platform.
7. Get rid: Porting Flickr to .Net would be a massive and thankless task.
8. Get rid: Flickr does not fit within Microsoft’s Windows Live aesthetic.
9. Get rid: Its users would react negatively to any attempt to re-brand it so.
10. Get rid: Microsoft have already made technology investments in photo sharing, having recently bought WebFives.

For these reasons I think Microsoft will regard Flickr as more effort than it’s worth. This leaves the question: who will buy it?

UPDATE: As I thought, Flickr users don’t seem too keen on the buyout.

I’ve just finished reading Purple Cow by renowned marketer Seth Godin. The way I devoured it in days is a testament to how fascinated I was, because I usually take some time to finish a book. I’ll relate the general gist, and some of my thoughts:

Purple what?!?

In this modern world where consumers are constantly bombarded with marketing messages, we have developed a capacity for ignoring 99% of the noise around us, simply in order to function.

It is becoming less viable to interrupt our lives to remind us that a product exists. TV advertising in particular is in decline, as people pay little attention to the expensive campaigns. With DVRs and video on demand services becoming more widespread it can’t be guaranteed that ads are watched at all.

This is a blow to marketing in the traditional sense, which has always been based around trying to convince us to buy a product, irrespective of whether it has any real merit. We are “post-consumption consumers” in the sense that we already have pretty much everything we need. We are unlikely to seek better solutions and when we do, we are far more likely to seek the advice of people we trust (family, friends, independent reviewers etc) than brand owners.

Safe is risky

When most products in a market are similar, Godin argues that the only safe option is to be risky. To stand out from the herd, as it were. To be a purple cow. Not simply in the sense of outdoing your competitors, but by innovating. To be remarkable in the truest sense of the word – worthy of being remarked upon. The one that people tell their friends, their blog readers or anyone who will listen is the only choice.

You don’t achieve this by aiming to create a mass-market product. You can’t please everyone, and most people are not early adopters, not risk takers. They will buy your product when it seems like a safe choice. Indentify the evangelists, the otaku, and create a product that appeals to their thirst for the new, the surprising, the best. Then you get out of the way and let them spread the word.

This is something that the Internet makes it easier than ever to do.

Not everyone can do this. Samsung may think that their F700 is a rival to iPhone, but it’s not – it’s a pale imitation. Noone will queue to see it. Noone will tell their friends. Newpapers won’t dedicate pages to it. Noone will name it invention of the year.

That was not a love note to Apple, just simple fact. To be remarkable is the key to success and you can’t get there by copying, and shouting about your mediocre product across print and screen because noone cares.

No “Ten Easy Steps”

The book is not a manual. It doesn’t tell you how to create a purple cow but it should motivate you to try, because there isn’t much else left to do. Its parting shot is that if you can create such a thing, you should maximise it without becoming complacent. Many companies have become great from one innovation, but declined because they failed to move on.

If any of this sounds interesting to you, I suggest you point your RSS reader at Seth Godin’s blog and check out his Squidoo lens where he has some worthwhile eBooks available for free.